Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Did the Great Game ever end?

For those unfamiliar with the history of Afghanistan (as most Americans are) the US-led coalition and Hamid Karzai's "Afghan tested, American approved" government are not the first time a greater power has attempted to control the region for political supremacy.

We've all heard the statement that "the third times a charm", but in the case of our coalition it's more like the 4th or 5th time is a charm.  In fact, only one person ever successfully conquered and held Afghanistan: Genghis Khan, all way back in 1219AD.

Afghanistan's high point of regional power came in the early 18th century, when, after expelling their Persian leaders (the 1st failed foreign occupation), they attempted to conquer India and were subsequently expelled by the Sikhs.

Coinciding with this, the empires of Great Britain and Russia hit a phase of rapid expansion.  Great Britain acquired many of it's colonial holdings, most notably India.  Russia expanded from the Baltic, to the Black and Caspian Seas, across the endless Siberian steppe, eventually to the Pacific.  This placed Afghanistan and most of Central Asia in the sights of the two superpowers.  Afghanistan was seen by Great Britain as the path of least resistance to it's Indian holdings; likewise, the Russians saw Afghanistan and Central Asia as buffer states along their massive border to prevent British expansion into the Russia's open, exposed prairie.

With the onset of the First Anglo-Afghan War, the Great Game began.  After the initial invasion, a puppet government was installed, but after a few years mobs on the street were attacking any European they could find.  The military garrison and government was driven out and completely decimated in their retreat back to India. (2nd failed foreign occupation)

Then came the Second and Third Anglo-Afghan Wars. Each were minor victories for Britain, but only because they learned from their first experience in the Kush Mountains. They did not occupy the country. The second war allowed Afghanistan to retain it's government, but it lost control of it's foreign policy; the third saw control of foreign policy returned to the Afghans. Instead of wasting man power trying to occupy and hold Afghanistan, the British set it up as a buffer state to Russia.

With the onset of World War I and the rise of Bolshevism the Great Game ended... or at least that's what most historians think.  I believe it was postponed and the rules were altered a little.  The United States began to play alongside Great Britain and the Soviet Union replaced Imperial Russia.  The Great Game resumed with George Kennan's X article; only the name of "the Great Game" was changed to "containment policy" (...the Great Game sounds better, doesn't it?).

Afghanistan was left out of the new Great Game for the better part of the twentieth century, until 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded to promote the growth of the fledgling People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan.  The Soviets were there for ten years, spending billions and killing millions.  And for those familiar with US policy, we funded the fight, supplying the mujahedeen with funding, advanced weapons, and training.  The funding continued until the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. (3rd failed occupation)

In the time between 1989 and 2001 Saudi Arabia and Iran backed opposing sides in a civil war to establish regional hegemony.  It was a costly and bloody fight, coming right on the tales of the Soviet Occupation.  This made the country extremely weak. So, over the years, Afghans who trained in Pakistan made their way back into the country and consolidated power, calling themselves the Taliban.

Now I should not have to explain anything past 2001. I'm pretty sure that being in the Kush Mountains eleven years and spending trillions on the Afghan Money Pit has, at least, shown Americans that our great building project isn't really working as intended.

Really what I want to know is why we thought we could do it.  We've all heard the adage that those who don't examine history are doomed to repeat it.  Every modern nation that has invaded Afghanistan before the US-led effort failed, spending themselves into oblivion while trying to maintain a valueless land area.  There are no major resources or ways to gain revenue in Afghanistan, and I'm sure that the people there, having been in a constant war since 1979 (or 33 years), would much rather be left to their own devices. No bureaucrat in London, Moscow, or Washington can understand the way this ancient nation functions, nor should they try to bend the Afghan people to their will.  It is clear that we are not wanted, as it was clear the Soviets were unwanted, as with the British and Persians before.  The people of Afghanistan want the same things we all do: a home, a family, a job.  A foreign government can not adequately provide those things, and history shows that it is completely foolish to try.

A final item of some importance: what happened to the governments of Persia, the Soviet Union, and Great Britain after failing in Afghanistan? Persia descended into anarchy because the Afghans killed the Shah. The Soviet Union went completely bankrupt and collapsed in 1991. Great Britain had the only positive outcome. After learning from their first mistake that occupation was foolish; they left Afghanistan to govern itself issuing in a period of peace in the region.

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